An AI 2027 Author Returns, With a Plan to Change the Ending

‘50% chance … that by the end of 2028, AI takeoff has happened, full automation of AI R&D has happened’

EXCERPT

KOKOTAJLO: "that AI takeoff happens in 2028. So 50% chance that it's happening by then. Um, or like that by the end of 2028, AI takeoff has happened, full automation of AI R&D has happened. So my median estimate. Um, and like in this scenario, they start plan A with this big international deal and all the ver- all the monitors flying back and forth and, and inspections and so forth in 2029, a year before, basically like a year before that moment. Um, but, um, because of uncertainty, maybe you have less time than you think, you know? And, and maybe while you're in negotiations with China, some breakthroughs are made inside one of these companies, and then you're after the races, and now things are much worse, you know? And so it's better to just like get started doing the good thing first, I would say."

Source: 80,000 Hours · Aug 27, 2026 · 58s clip