Daniel Kokotajlo: a 50% estimate for 2029

‘My sort of median estimate, 50% chance is currently in 2029. Maybe it'll slip to 2028’

EXCERPT

KOKOTAJLO: "So what would you do if you thought that superintelligence was coming in a few years? I guess it depends what the consequences were. Well, let's talk about it. So superintelligence AIs that are better than the best humans at everything, while also being faster and cheaper, also able to operate robots that can do everything in the physical world that humans can do, but better, faster and cheaper. If that really is coming in a few years, then we need to prepare and we need to think about how to make it go well instead of poorly. So that's sort of my answer is like, I'm doing that to the best of my ability. So you believe it's coming in a few years? Yes. How could you be so sure? I spend a lot of time trying to forecast this sort of thing. My sort of median estimate, 50% chance is currently in 2029. Maybe it'll slip to 2028. It's possible that it'll take significantly longer, like maybe 10 years or something like that. But, uh, you know, for reasons I'm happy to get into, seems to me like it's probably happening by the end of the decade"

Source: The Diary Of A CEO · Jul 13, 2026 · 57s clip