Luisa Rodriguez: a conditional three-year forecast for messy real-world tasks

‘If the next three years are anything like the last three, I think we'll probably unlock those, too’

EXCERPT

RODRIGUEZ: "Maybe this seems like a long way out, but there are two things that make me think it isn't. The first is just how fast things are already moving. When GPT-4 was released in 2023, it could hardly multiply two numbers together. But within the last few weeks, a swarm of OpenAI models worked together to produce a solution to the Millennium Prize Problem, an open math problem that world-class mathematicians have been working on for over 90 years. The AIs did it in a week. Today, AIs are still bad at the messy long-term tasks that most jobs are made of. But if the next three years are anything like the last three, I think we'll probably unlock those, too"

Source: 80,000 Hours · Sep 24, 2026 · 48s clip